Trump is a test for the ‘Great Man theory’

The focus on individuals used to be called “Great Man theory”. Its chief proponent, 19th-century historian Thomas Carlyle, wrote, “The history of the world is but the biography of great men”. Diarmaid MacCulloch of Oxford university has proposed removing the sexist and approbatory labels by renaming it “Big Beast history”. But historian Jane Ridley straightforwardly dismisses “Carlyle’s great man theory” as “a piece of romantic claptrap”.

Modern historians tend to be wary of ascribing change to individuals. They are more likely to identify “the fish that changed the world” (to quote the subtitle of Mark Kurlansky’s book Cod) than a human who did. Most historians prefer impersonal structural forces: geography for the French Annales school, economics for Marxists, technology for others, while there’s been a recent surge of interest in climate change and pandemics.

But having said all that, here comes Donald Trump. He provides the biggest test of Great Man theory in our lifetimes. His supporters, enemies and the man himself (“I alone can fix it”) depict him as an agent of historical change. Are we all suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome? Or will this individual really change history? A structural-forces historian could build a strong case against Trump’s importance. Sure, the historian would say, individual autocrats can sometimes change history — Vladimir Putin’s personal quirks probably prompted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — but not the leader of a democracy of such dispersed power as the US. Trump cannot even appoint his preferred attorney-general.

The historian would emphasise the power of technological change, especially in an era when tech determines how we spend our days and use our minds. (That’s even before AI conquers everything, possibly accelerated by Trump slashing regulations.) Trump’s Maga may matter less than the rival “Maga” of Meta, Amazon, Google and Apple. Trends towards increased racial tolerance, and renewable energy, also run counter to Trumpism.

It’s all true, yet Trump probably has the best shot at changing history of any democratic leader since 1945. First, he runs the most powerful democracy. And, whereas in 2016 he was essentially a corporate raider who had acquired a minority stake in the Republican party, he has now completed his takeover. Trump loyalists will control Congress, the Supreme Court and the upper reaches of the federal bureaucracy.

Trump is probably the second-most powerful person on earth after Xi Jinping, who controls a bigger bureaucracy and understands better how it works. Moreover, Trump aspires to shift the course of history. He differs from previous modern presidents on the rule of law, the legitimacy of elections, global trade, scientific findings, the value of allies and how to treat political opponents.